Extrapolation of Time-to-Event Survival Outcomes of Histology-Independent Therapies Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. (PubMed, Med Decis Making)
In this study, we extend previous work on binary outcomes to the application of Bayesian hierarchical models (BHMs) for extrapolation of overall survival from pembrolizumab-treated patients with microsatellite instability-high/deficient mismatch repair solid tumors.MethodsWe considered BHMs based on 1- or 2-parameter distributions for extrapolation of survival outcomes...The results provide extrapolated curves for OS that vary by tumor site, thus capturing and quantifying the inherent heterogeneity within the patient population. BHMs offer advantages in terms of reduced uncertainty around parameters that are often key drivers in cost-effectiveness analyses, such as estimated OS, through the borrowing of information between tumor sites.HighlightsBayesian hierarchical models (BHMs) reduced uncertainty in extrapolation of time-to-event outcomes for histology-independent treatments compared with nonhierarchical models fit to each tumor site.Reduced uncertainty around the mean survival time is a key factor of cost-effectiveness analyses of histology-independent treatments.BHMs provide a suitable framework for extrapolating histology-independent survival outcomes, effectively integrating prior knowledge and explicitly capturing heterogeneity between different tumor sites.